Many people have searched for the answers to how a reality TV star who has zero political experience became the most powerful person in the world. When you think about it from a distance it truly doesn’t even make any sense. He did not have the backing of the GOP or any real donor base. He had a longer history of donating to Democratic candidates then he did of supporting republican ideals. When he started his campaign for president he even made it known that his run was a protest candidate and he had no intention and no thought of actually being able to secure the nomination let alone win the actual presidency.
But as all of us know, he did win the nomination and eventually defeated Hilary and the world was genuinely shocked. So how did it happen and can it happen again?
Reason #1 – Turnout.
It is not a secret that the turnout was lower for the 2016 election than the 2008 election, but about on par with the 2012 election. The polling data suggested that Trump was going to lose and lose badly, it is of my opinion that the polling data put voters who were on the fence about committing the time to vote ( apathetic voters ) did not feel they needed to vote to get the desired outcome, and or did not believe their vote would count.
Reason #2 – Surprise
This is similar to the turnout reason but in reality, I think it deserves its own slot, and here is why; very few people believed Trump could win, and most believed that his lack of campaign spending put him way behind the eightball for political ads. Another major factor that led to such belief was the clear media bias of not taking Trump seriously until after the election.
Reason #3 – Hillary Clinton
Elections are in many ways not about ideas or even qualifications. Most of the time people vote with their gut, and Trump won the gut vote while Clinton did not spark any real emotions from her supposed base. But Hilary did not win any popularity contests, people clearly had negative reactions to her comparative to many other candidates. She had the first woman angle that really pulled some clear excitement but the glass ceiling argument only went so far. There was clear “Clinton Fatigue” in play as well which didn’t help either.
The question now is can it happen again? If you would have asked me a year ago I would have told you no way. But looking at this past year i think it’s clear that of course, Trump can pull another surprise out of his hat, and in many ways, it will barely be his doing.